Brutus to Julius Caesar:
"There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries."
The tide in Libya was swelling a couple weeks ago. The rebels were on there way to Tripoli and Qaddafi was practically buying his ticket to Venezuela to go pal with Hugo.
A simple no fly zone, downing a few Libyan jets, would have grounded the entire Libyan air force, discouraged the mercenaries Qaddafi is hiring from Mali, and paved the way for the rebels to enter Tripoli to an overwhelming show of support.
But Barak Obama missed the tide. Instead of leadership at the tide's swell, he went to the UN to find out what other world leaders thought and follow them. Russian and China predictably voted no as the lone hold outs. After all, they are dictatorial themselves. The UN diversion showed Obama's cards and emboldened Qaddafi, who apparently knew what the outcome would be and began hiring mercenaries instead of air transit for himself and his billions.
Now we are left to step in at the very end when Qaddafi is about to smash the cornered rebels in the extreme eastern edge of Libya, round them up, and execute them. Now it would take a ground war and the best result that could be achieved would be a divided Libya with the UN or the US patrolling a new DMZ, "bound in shallows and miseries."
Does Obama read Shakespeare?
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Bullet Train Reality Check Part 3 - Who Drives I-4?
We looked at Joe Traveler from the Orlando suburbs, and at Oscar Weiner German tourist with family. Now let's look at who actually travels I-4 between Orlando and Tampa, and makes for all the congestion.
I don't have hard figures, but I'm willing to bet that the vast majority of people coming from Orlando on I-4 are NOT planning on going to downtown Tampa. And vice versa.
I notice that the huge majority seem to zip right past the "Downtown" exit for both cities. Conservatively let's say at least 75% or more of the cars go right past the downtown exits of both Tampa and Orlando. It certainly looks that way from driving it. And if you ever go downtown to either city, you know this is true. What people who are there came because they work downtown and commute from suburbs, not from across the State!
In fact, a large percentage on drivers on I-4 aren't even stopping at all! They are just passing through from east coast to west coast, or the reverse.
And it's the semi trucks that cause a lot of the bottle neck on I-4. You're not getting them on the bullet train!
I don't have hard figures, but I'm willing to bet that the vast majority of people coming from Orlando on I-4 are NOT planning on going to downtown Tampa. And vice versa.
I notice that the huge majority seem to zip right past the "Downtown" exit for both cities. Conservatively let's say at least 75% or more of the cars go right past the downtown exits of both Tampa and Orlando. It certainly looks that way from driving it. And if you ever go downtown to either city, you know this is true. What people who are there came because they work downtown and commute from suburbs, not from across the State!
In fact, a large percentage on drivers on I-4 aren't even stopping at all! They are just passing through from east coast to west coast, or the reverse.
And it's the semi trucks that cause a lot of the bottle neck on I-4. You're not getting them on the bullet train!
Waste.
Bullet Train Real World Part 2
We looked at Joe Traveler, an Orlando suburb resident. Now lets look at Oscar Weiner, a well-to-do German tourist with this wife and two children:
Oscar is on vacation from Germany and they plan to stay 7 days in the Disney resort area before going to south Florida. Here are their "hot spots" in central Florida:
1. Disney Magic Kingdom
2. Disney MGM
3. Disney Animal Kingdom
4. Disney Epcot or a Disney water park
5. Universal total park pass
6. Kennedy Space Center
7. Sea World
Notice anything? No Tampa.
Oscar read about the bullet train but he had to laugh. Really? A 68 mile bullet train that takes one hour? Then what do you do in downtown Tampa? Go out on a gambling cruise? Does Ybor compare to the Orlando resort area? Even Busch Gardens (requiring a cab ride), while OK, can't compare to Animal Kingdom+Universal Islands of Adventure. He's definitely not going to a Bucs game. Forget the aquarium compared to Sea World.
No bullet train for Oscar and family.
Oscar is on vacation from Germany and they plan to stay 7 days in the Disney resort area before going to south Florida. Here are their "hot spots" in central Florida:
1. Disney Magic Kingdom
2. Disney MGM
3. Disney Animal Kingdom
4. Disney Epcot or a Disney water park
5. Universal total park pass
6. Kennedy Space Center
7. Sea World
Notice anything? No Tampa.
Oscar read about the bullet train but he had to laugh. Really? A 68 mile bullet train that takes one hour? Then what do you do in downtown Tampa? Go out on a gambling cruise? Does Ybor compare to the Orlando resort area? Even Busch Gardens (requiring a cab ride), while OK, can't compare to Animal Kingdom+Universal Islands of Adventure. He's definitely not going to a Bucs game. Forget the aquarium compared to Sea World.
No bullet train for Oscar and family.
Florida Bullet Train Not a Bullet
Let's talk real world on the foolish bullet train to nowhere between Orlando and Tampa.
Joe Traveler is in suburban Orlando and needs to be some place in the Tampa area. He has two options: 1) hop in his Toyota Camry and drive to his destination in about 70 minutes at a cost of about $11 gas, or 2) hop on the new Federally funded bullet train to downtown Tampa. Joe chooses to try the bullet train. Here's his trip details:
TOTAL one way cost: $65 (one half rt ticket + parking and cab)
More than double the time and triple the cost!
Any questions???
Waste
Joe Traveler is in suburban Orlando and needs to be some place in the Tampa area. He has two options: 1) hop in his Toyota Camry and drive to his destination in about 70 minutes at a cost of about $11 gas, or 2) hop on the new Federally funded bullet train to downtown Tampa. Joe chooses to try the bullet train. Here's his trip details:
- Looking up schedule online: 5 minutes
- Travel from his house in the suburbs to the terminal: 20 minutes
- Paying for parking: $10
- Paying for the round trip ticket: $60
- Clearing TSA security: 5 minutes
- Waiting on the train (average): 25 minutes because he had to "arrive early" for security
- Actual travel on train to downtown Tampa: 60 minutes due to several stops
- Finding a cab in Tampa: 5 minutes & took a cell call to the Taxi company!
- Cab travel to north Tampa: $25
- Cab travel time: 25 minutes
TOTAL one way cost: $65 (one half rt ticket + parking and cab)
More than double the time and triple the cost!
Any questions???
Waste
Florida High Speed Rail = FAIL
Thankfully the high speed rail to nowhere in Florida was rejected by Governor Rick Scott.
First, it's only 68 miles from Orlando to Tampa. By car it takes only an hour. It takes about 3 gallons of gas at best. That's about $11. And at IRS standard mileage rates it costs $34. What do you want to guess a ticket for the bullet train to nowhere would cost? $60? Multiply that by a family of four and you're at $240 to make a one hour car trip! You could rent a luxury car for a week at that rate.
Second, it arrives in downtown Tampa??? Excuse me. What are you going to do in downtown Tampa? There's nothing there. I mean it's OK as far as medium large cities go, but nearly everything anyone would want to do is miles and miles from the downtown. So you're forced now to find a cab or bus and hire transportation to where you really wanted to go. Try finding a cab in Tampa. It's not NY City or Chicago. When you do finally get one, add $25 dollars and about 35 minutes to travel time you wouldn't have had if you took a car in the first place. And don't forget to double that to get back to the bullet train terminal. So add and extra hour or more of travel time and $50.
And don't forget that you had to drive to the bullet train terminal in Orlando, pay to park, then wait on the train. Add at least 30 minutes travel time and another $10 at least to park.
So now that 60 minute trip by car is already taking 70 minutes NOT COUNTING THE TRAIN TRIP! And for that privilege your paying an extra $60 in cabs and parking not counting the train ticket.
Third, let's talk real speed. Travel time will be about one hour for the train trip because it will make a number of stops to "awesome" places like downtown Lakeland. I can imagine the one person getting off there! But the Dems had to get those good old boys on the Federal gravy train.
Fourth, the cost to operate the train (not counting any construction costs, over runs, etc) is estimated to be $130 million a year. Three round trips a day.
130,000,000 / by 365 days a year = $356,164 per day operating costs.
Three round trips a day = $118,721 per round trip, or $59,360 per one-way trip.
Let's suppose this: 400 passengers per train (pure fantasy, but let's be generous to the "bridge to the19th Century" crowd). Times 6 one-way jaunts = 2400 one way tickets a day. That means a one-way ticket would have to be $24.73 each to break even! For a family of 4 that's $100 for a one-way trip that takes the same time as by car and lands you in downtown Tampa! And they would have to add parking and ground transportation once they leave the train.
Fifth, would you even notice a drop of 2400 passengers a day on I-4 (not cars, passengers)? No way!
Sixth, the above doesn't even begin to address repaying on the "investment" of 2.4 billion tax dollars. Over thirty years cost recovery that would be $80 million a year. Add that to the $130 million operating estimate (a gov. estimate by the way....and we know what that means!) and you have $210 million a year. Now the one-way ticket needs to be $39.95 each!
At $40 per one way ticket for a train that won't even come close to 200 mph and will take every bit as long as a car to get where it's going, the ridership is going to be non-existent.
First, it's only 68 miles from Orlando to Tampa. By car it takes only an hour. It takes about 3 gallons of gas at best. That's about $11. And at IRS standard mileage rates it costs $34. What do you want to guess a ticket for the bullet train to nowhere would cost? $60? Multiply that by a family of four and you're at $240 to make a one hour car trip! You could rent a luxury car for a week at that rate.
Second, it arrives in downtown Tampa??? Excuse me. What are you going to do in downtown Tampa? There's nothing there. I mean it's OK as far as medium large cities go, but nearly everything anyone would want to do is miles and miles from the downtown. So you're forced now to find a cab or bus and hire transportation to where you really wanted to go. Try finding a cab in Tampa. It's not NY City or Chicago. When you do finally get one, add $25 dollars and about 35 minutes to travel time you wouldn't have had if you took a car in the first place. And don't forget to double that to get back to the bullet train terminal. So add and extra hour or more of travel time and $50.
And don't forget that you had to drive to the bullet train terminal in Orlando, pay to park, then wait on the train. Add at least 30 minutes travel time and another $10 at least to park.
So now that 60 minute trip by car is already taking 70 minutes NOT COUNTING THE TRAIN TRIP! And for that privilege your paying an extra $60 in cabs and parking not counting the train ticket.
Third, let's talk real speed. Travel time will be about one hour for the train trip because it will make a number of stops to "awesome" places like downtown Lakeland. I can imagine the one person getting off there! But the Dems had to get those good old boys on the Federal gravy train.
Fourth, the cost to operate the train (not counting any construction costs, over runs, etc) is estimated to be $130 million a year. Three round trips a day.
130,000,000 / by 365 days a year = $356,164 per day operating costs.
Three round trips a day = $118,721 per round trip, or $59,360 per one-way trip.
Let's suppose this: 400 passengers per train (pure fantasy, but let's be generous to the "bridge to the19th Century" crowd). Times 6 one-way jaunts = 2400 one way tickets a day. That means a one-way ticket would have to be $24.73 each to break even! For a family of 4 that's $100 for a one-way trip that takes the same time as by car and lands you in downtown Tampa! And they would have to add parking and ground transportation once they leave the train.
Fifth, would you even notice a drop of 2400 passengers a day on I-4 (not cars, passengers)? No way!
Sixth, the above doesn't even begin to address repaying on the "investment" of 2.4 billion tax dollars. Over thirty years cost recovery that would be $80 million a year. Add that to the $130 million operating estimate (a gov. estimate by the way....and we know what that means!) and you have $210 million a year. Now the one-way ticket needs to be $39.95 each!
At $40 per one way ticket for a train that won't even come close to 200 mph and will take every bit as long as a car to get where it's going, the ridership is going to be non-existent.
Friday, March 4, 2011
Koran Versus New Testament Quiz
"Love your enemies...." comes from which book:
A: The New Testament
B: The Koran (Quran)
If you answered A, you are correct. If you answered B, you are incorrect. Surprisingly the Koran itself has no such ethic of "loving your enemies" or even a general ethic of loving your fellow man beyond fellow Muslims.
But there is an almost universally held notion in popular culture, media, and even among Christians that at root Islam is much like Christianity or even other major religions such as Buddhism or Hinduism.
In fact, the root is quite different. The Western world needs to be aware that at root Islam is very different in it's ethics of love. And only in it's later, westernized forms is it "moderate."
The opposite is true for Christianity. The biblical root commands believers to love all people--even enemies, "live at peace with all men," forgive, never take their own vengeance. The later perversions of Christianity over the centuries have introduced non-biblical values and practices such as the crusades, the inquisition, or justifying aggression, greed, or hatred.
To check this for yourself, do a concordance search for the word "love" in the Koran. Then do it for the New Testament.
In the Koran there are a some mentions of "love for Allah," and a few mentions of "love" for fellow Muslims (the poor among them) but not extending to enemies, or even those who follow other religions and are living at peace. Quite the opposite, in fact.
You can't include successive centuries of Islamic tradition--additional writings. Certainly successive Muslims have added in such ethics at times. But today, there are millions who do not hold to any such ethic in Islamic circles. But outside the middle east you do find many "moderate" Muslims who have added an ethic of love or at least tolerance and non-violence, but have done so in spite of the Koran.
A: The New Testament
B: The Koran (Quran)
If you answered A, you are correct. If you answered B, you are incorrect. Surprisingly the Koran itself has no such ethic of "loving your enemies" or even a general ethic of loving your fellow man beyond fellow Muslims.
But there is an almost universally held notion in popular culture, media, and even among Christians that at root Islam is much like Christianity or even other major religions such as Buddhism or Hinduism.
In fact, the root is quite different. The Western world needs to be aware that at root Islam is very different in it's ethics of love. And only in it's later, westernized forms is it "moderate."
The opposite is true for Christianity. The biblical root commands believers to love all people--even enemies, "live at peace with all men," forgive, never take their own vengeance. The later perversions of Christianity over the centuries have introduced non-biblical values and practices such as the crusades, the inquisition, or justifying aggression, greed, or hatred.
To check this for yourself, do a concordance search for the word "love" in the Koran. Then do it for the New Testament.
In the Koran there are a some mentions of "love for Allah," and a few mentions of "love" for fellow Muslims (the poor among them) but not extending to enemies, or even those who follow other religions and are living at peace. Quite the opposite, in fact.
You can't include successive centuries of Islamic tradition--additional writings. Certainly successive Muslims have added in such ethics at times. But today, there are millions who do not hold to any such ethic in Islamic circles. But outside the middle east you do find many "moderate" Muslims who have added an ethic of love or at least tolerance and non-violence, but have done so in spite of the Koran.
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